Arthur Hayes Raises Red Flag on Bitcoin’s Divergence from Tech Stocks

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, has voiced concerns regarding the growing disparity between Bitcoin‘s market performance and the impressive ascension of the Nasdaq 100 index. He suggests this could indicate brewing issues in global dollar liquidity. In his recent blog post, Hayes explains the reasons behind Bitcoin’s lackluster returns, particularly as monetary conditions tighten.

Why is Bitcoin Struggling Against Nasdaq Gains?

Bitcoin, according to Hayes, continues to be heavily reliant on dollar liquidity. The asset’s struggles to match the Nasdaq’s rise are primarily due to the stagnation of credit growth in the U.S. He argues this situation highlights the stress on the American financial system’s liquidity. The dynamics of Bitcoin are inherently linked to changes in dollar credit availability.

What Drives Gold and Not Bitcoin?

Changes in market drivers are significant, as Hayes elaborates on the dichotomy between central banks and sovereign wealth, which stand in contrast to liquidity-dependent retail investors. Since 2022, nations have increasingly looked towards gold as a safeguard against potential U.S. asset seizures. This has reshaped gold’s traditional role and intensified demand from state entities.

Conversely, Bitcoin is not embraced as a reserve asset by these large institutions. Instead, its valuation remains closely tied with dollar credit fluctuations. This tightening of dollar liquidity appears to be a rational rationale for Bitcoin’s recent underperformance. The Nasdaq’s recent surge, propelled by AI advancements, is yet to inject any significant boost into the crypto market.

Despite a cautious short-term outlook, Hayes remains positive about Bitcoin’s future trajectory. He predicts that market bottoms may occur early in 2026, coinciding with potential liquidity injections from the U.S. Federal Reserve, which might propel Bitcoin to remarkable highs, possibly reaching $250,000.

Reflecting his beliefs, Hayes has allocated his personal investments towards Bitcoin, Ethena (ENA), and privacy-centric digital currencies. He foresees increased governmental spending from both U.S. political parties in the 2026 elections, which he asserts will amplify liquidity in the markets, thereby benefiting riskier assets.

In a divergent viewpoint, Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, has raised the alarm about proposed amendments to Bitcoin’s consensus mechanism. He warns that such changes, meant to curb spam, could undermine the network’s security and stability, stressing that they should only be considered if absolutely necessary.

Hayes interprets Bitcoin’s decoupling from equities as a clear signal of tightening U.S. dollar liquidity.

• Bitcoin’s underperformance stems from stagnation in U.S. credit creation.
• Gold’s demand among countries has reshaped its traditional role due to U.S. asset seizure fears.
• Artificial intelligence is fueling Nasdaq growth, leaving Bitcoin behind.

The outlook for Bitcoin remains uncertain, yet figures like Hayes continue to foresee potential for growth, contingent upon changing monetary policies and global economic conditions. His insights offer a profound understanding of the intricate interplay between cryptocurrencies and traditional financial systems.