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Elon Musk already knows what it feels like to have an army of retail traders at his back. More than one million small investors hold Tesla, giving him a shield no other CEO in the S&P 500 enjoys.
That crowd lets him ignore pressure from big funds because they always show up with diamond hands.
Now he’s getting ready to test whether that same energy can carry SpaceX, a company aiming for a public debut at a valuation of $1.5 trillion, according to people familiar with the planning.
They said that valuation would place SpaceX right above Tesla, making it the ninth-biggest company in the world on day one.
His advisers said the company is targeting mid-to-late 2026 for the IPO. One of the people said the timing could shift into 2027, depending on market conditions. Media reports on Friday said SpaceX has also explored a debut as early as late next year.
Behind the scenes, Elon and the board have already advanced plans for the offering, including new hiring and how the company will utilize the fresh capital. One of the people said these moves were locked in as SpaceX completed its most recent insider sale.
Retail traders shape the market
SpaceX aims to raise more than $30 billion, which would top Saudi Aramco’s $29 billion IPO from 2019. If that happens, it becomes the biggest listing in history.
Some of the people said SpaceX’s faster route to public markets is tied to the strength of its Starlink business. Starlink is growing fast and includes a coming direct-to-mobile service. SpaceX is also still pushing ahead with Starship, the rocket built for the moon and Mars.
Elon also runs xAI, which now sits under the same roof as his X platform. Two of the people said SpaceX expects to use some IPO proceeds to build space-based data centers and buy chips needed to run them.
The rush of retail investors into US markets sets the backdrop. Retail traders now account for more than 20% of daily volume, and that number is even higher for stocks priced under $5.
Their growth shows up in the rise of platforms like HOOD, IBKR, and SCHW, and in the expansion of trading hours and investor tools. Retail volume has doubled since 2010, and these traders now move more shares than mutual funds and traditional hedge funds combined.
The jump in 2020 from lockdowns and the spike in 2021 from GameStop were sharp, but analysts said the current trend looks steadier. Jefferies showed this in a chart that had what one analyst called “the most pointless double axis ever,” but the data still showed the same thing.
Investors weigh giant valuations
The demand for a SpaceX listing brings a big question. Investors have to decide whether they want a company with a controversial founder, no traditional profits, and a private-market valuation that dwarfs every IPO before it. The short answer from bankers is simple: yes.
Paul Abrahimzadeh of 1789 Capital said, “The median market cap of an S&P 500 company is close to $40 billion; this is a completely different stratosphere. A company like SpaceX will clearly cater to a wide swath of institutional investors — as well as retail — and is a must-own name.”
IPOs have slowed since the record $492 billion raised in 2021, while companies like SpaceX, Stripe, and ByteDance reached sky-high valuations privately. They did all of that without quarterly earnings pressure. Investors who can’t get into these private deals have grown louder, while bankers complain about losing out on fat IPO fees.
If SpaceX lists anywhere close to the $800 billion figure from its latest private round, or the $1.5 trillion valuation now under discussion, it signals that staying private only goes so far.
SpaceX already runs the world’s biggest satellite network. Its constellation beams internet to more than 8 million users, according to the company’s website. It also bought EchoStar’s radio spectrum to launch its direct-to-cell business.
But going public would force Elon and the company to deal with shareholders who might focus on short-term revenue instead of costly long-term projects like Starship.
A single IPO raising more than $50 billion would beat the annual US listing volume for eight of the past thirteen years, excluding SPACs and closed-end funds.
Stowe, an analyst, said that missing a $500 million IPO doesn’t matter much. But, “If you choose not to participate in a $30 or $50 billion IPO that does really well, that creates some significant challenges.”
The long wait for companies like SpaceX to go public means their shareholder lists are much larger and more diverse than typical IPO candidates.
Stewart said this opens the door for discussions about direct listings. The biggest so far is Coinbase in 2021, followed by major debuts from Palantir and Roblox during the Covid boom.
Private-market investors also want liquidity. A McKinsey & Co. survey from January showed that returns are now the most important metric for limited partners, rising sharply from three years before. For many of them, a SpaceX listing can’t come soon enough.
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